We publish one of these in July and one in December. It is a description of what we are seeing across our own lanes rather than an industry forecast, and it should be read as one yard's view of one region.
The short version: tighter than usual, earlier than usual, and holding.
Core supply
Inbound core volume through the first half was roughly in line with the same period last year on units, and slightly down on Grade A yield per unit received.
The yield drop is the interesting part. More of what arrived needed work — a higher proportion of repairable and dismantle-lane units, fewer straight-to-reuse. Some of that is a wet March; some of it, we suspect, is that buyers holding stock longer are running units further into their service life before releasing them.
The effect is that graded output has been more expensive to produce than the unit count suggests, which is why prices have not softened the way the calendar would normally imply.
| Measure | H1 2025 | H1 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cores received | 812,000 | 826,000 | +1.7% |
| Straight-to-reuse share | 34.8% | 31.9% | −2.9 pts |
| Repaired share | 27.1% | 30.4% | +3.3 pts |
| Grade A shipped | 298,000 | 291,000 | −2.3% |
| Median collection radius | 78 mi | 81 mi | +3.8% |
The spring peak arrived early
Normally the tight stretch runs mid-March to late May. This year it started in the last week of February and had not properly released by the end of June.
The proximate cause was an early thaw and a construction restart about three weeks ahead of the usual pattern, landing on top of a greenhouse season that was already ramping. Nothing exotic — just two curves that usually overlap partially overlapping almost completely.
Programme customers were unaffected, which is the point of a programme. Spot buyers had a difficult quarter and several of them are now, sensibly, talking to us about autumn booking.
Repair share at a record
30.4% of intake by weight was repaired and returned to service, the highest we have recorded. That is partly a response to the yield problem — with fewer straight-to-reuse units, the bench does more of the work — and partly capacity we have been building for three years finally being fully used.
It is also the outcome we most want. Repair with recovered lumber is the second-best environmental outcome after straight reuse, and it is the one where our costs are most stable, because the bench runs on the dismantling line rather than on the lumber market.
What the second half looks like
We expect core supply to loosen through August and September as it usually does, and a smaller autumn peak around harvest and retail build-up.
The thing we are watching is whether the yield problem persists. If units are genuinely arriving further into their service life, that is a structural shift rather than a wet spring, and it would mean a permanently higher repair share and a permanently tighter Grade A market.
Two quarters is not enough data to call that. We will know by December and we will say either way.